Paolo Cesarini, the Commission's car industry competition mandarin, is said to have written in internal documents that 'there is no valid reason' to replace them.

“I reckon that by 2010 it (block exemption) will be so minimal that it will have gone away,” said Peter Cooke, the University of Buckingham's professor of automotive management.

“I was in Brussels last week talking to senior people on the distribution side. The consensus was that block exemption has relatively limited shelf life now.” Professor Cooke said the car industry was busy negotiating with Brussels over other issues, notably emissions and the environment, and that political moves to open up vehicle sales would be harder to resist. “If it goes, we will be in a situation close to free competition, but having said that, during the last round of changes manufacturers were expected to loosen their grip. I think they've changed their methods of gripping the market.” He added that the arrival of East European countries into the EU meant that block exemption laws were under pressure from regions which viewed car sales differently. He said such countries hadn't developed recognisable used car markets, and with Russian and Chinese car makers likely to start selling in these territories, priorities would change. “When we look at block exemption, we shouldn't take a too parochial view,” he said.

Tony Proctor, director of independent research company Trend Tracker believed it was too early to write off block exemption regulations. “The whole thing has to go through the European Parliament. It doesn't have a veto, but it's consulted and the Council of Ministers (will look at proposals),” said Proctor. “Since proposals aren't due until 2009 there's time for quite a lot of lobbying.” However, EC competition spokesman Jonathan Todd said it would “indicate its official position on the functioning of the car block exemption regulation and on whether it should be continued in a report to be adopted in May 2008.” Cesarini recently met the National Franchised Dealers Association. Its director, Sue Robinson, said the motor trade needed “clear, workable and robust safeguards, regardless of the strict legal format of the rules themselves.”