New car sales to soar

Volumes will continue their decline – dropping to a low of 2.29 million units in 2008 – then rally to reach 2.34 million a year later. The prediction is based on JD Power Automotive Volumes, which analyses future car retailing trends. Sales will rise significantly in 2010, to 2.49 million units, and then reach an eight-year high as the 2011 market hits 2.58 million.

Strong sales of over 2.5 million units will then be sustained up until 2014. The good news for dealers is that the retail share of the market between 2008-2012 will rally from current levels. Arthur Maher, the head European analyst at JD Power Automotive Forecasting, said he expected the retail share to rise significantly from 2007. “We envisage little change in the retail share of the UK market in 2007, which is estimated at 44 per cent, but over 2008-2012 we have it recovering to a cyclical peak of 49 per cent,” Maher said. “In the longer term it is difficult to see how the business and fleet share of 56 per cent will be sustained.”

Projected figures over five years: 2008 - 2.29m 2009 - 2.34m 2010 - 2.49m 2011 - 2.58m 2012 - 2.55m Source: JD Power

JD Power estimates that retail sales will claim a peak share of the market in 2012 at 49 per cent, with sales of 1.25 million vehicles in a total market of 2.55 million. The projected increased retail market share is a significant improvement on recent levels. Figures from the SMMT show that in 2006 retail sales fell 4 per cent to 1.03 million units, equal to a 44.1 per cent share. Business and fleet sales accounted for 55.9 per cent of new car sales at 1.3 million units.