As the crucial plate-change looms, a poll on the Motor Trader website recorded the vast majority of respondents taking a pessimistic view with just 16 per cent believing the decision by the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 0.25 per cent would stimulate sales of cars bearing the 55 plate.
The SMMT was anticipating a “normal September” of about 420,000 registrations.
“Business always picks up because of the plate-change but there is nothing to suggest it will be above normal. It's a bit early for the interest rate cut to kick-in” an SMMT spokesman said.
“It's a small cut so far,” he added and said that prolonged changes in interest rates would be more likely to have an impact rather than just a single reduction.
“If we get a couple in the next few months we may be talking differently,” he said.
The RMI was more upbeat about prospects for September. Chief executive Matthew Carrington said the interest cut was “a move in the right direction” and added: “The rate drop should have a positive impact on new car sales during September, giving a boost to the 55 plate.”
Policy director of the National Franchised Dealers Association Sue Robinson said the rise was unlikely to have a major effect on the market but could trigger a “slight upturn”.
She claimed that although the boom period of the previous two years was over it was still a “reasonably successful market”. But Robinson predicted next month's new car sales would be marginally down year-on-year and said low mortgage borrowing rates indicated that consumer confidence was still low.
Market leader Ford said the rate change would help the market but that a cut of just a quarter of a percentage point was merely “tinkering at the edges”.
Nevertheless, a spokesman for the brand said: “September is looking better than March.”
Ken Savage, chairman of Perrys Group, ranked 24 in the Motor trader Top 200, said the move to peg back interest rates was “not going to do any harm but the market is still hard work”.
He claimed Perrys had performed better than the overall market but admitted business had been “tough all year”.
The rate cut “hasn't fed through in terms of consumer optimism yet”, Savage said.
Reg Vardy chief executive Sir Peter Vardy welcomed the Bank of England's move, saying the cut, “no matter how small”, would “build confidence for consumers”.
Vardy said manufacturer incentives could pull customers into showrooms.
“We're currently seeing some of the strongest deals ever which will ensure superb value for money for any customer looking to upgrade their car.”